Shea Theodore is now one of the top defensemen in the entire NHL
The Anaheim Ducks selected Shea Theodore 26th overall in the 2013 NHL Draft, and the hope was that Theodore could turn into a core piece of Anaheim’s blue line for the future. Well, Theodore turned out to be just that, but with a different franchise. The Ducks were faced with an extremely tough decision after the 2016–17 season with the Vegas Expansion Draft right around the corner, and since they already had to protect Kevin Bieksa on the back end due to a no-movement clause on his contract, that meant that they were only able to protect two other defensemen with the 7F-3D-1G format. Hampus Lindholm and Cam Fowler ended up being protected, but that left two key defenders in Josh Manson and Sami Vatanen exposed.
This meant that Anaheim had to give up a valuable asset in a trade in order to force George McPhee to not pick either of them, and that of course ended up happening as Shea Theodore was acquired by the Golden Knights in compensation for taking on Clayton Stoner’s contract. Fast forward a few years later, and Theodore has emerged as a top-pairing defender for Vegas who turned out to be better than all of Fowler, Lindholm, Manson, and Vatanen. Pretty ironic to say the least.
It wasn’t long ago that Anaheim had such a promising young blue line as not only did it include players like Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen, Theodore, and Brandon Montour, they also had lots of promising talent in the pipeline with Marcus Pettersson, Josh Mahura, and Jacob Larsson. Now, Anaheim needs to add young talent to their blue line all over again after all those years of building up such a young, talented defensive core and pipeline, and everything fell apart within the organization pretty quickly.
Theodore struggled to find a legitimate role in Anaheim as he ended up between the NHL and AHL a lot, and because of the fact that Anaheim’s young defensive core was only on the rise, that certainly didn’t help his case at all. So, at the time the move may have not been a terrible one to make, but with the change of scenery and a new opportunity in Vegas, the potential was certainly there for him to become an impact defender for the Knights. Now, Theodore has blossomed into a dynamic possession-driving machine in Vegas’ system, and that wasn’t just because of Gerard Gallant as he also played a big role in the development of Theodore’s game, but it has been even more evident with Peter DeBoer on his side ever since he took over as coach of the Knights back in mid-January.
DeBoer’s modern-day system involves a very in-your-face style of play, but he also encourages his defensemen to be heavily involved offensively and on the rush as much as possible, so that definitely blends in really well with Vegas’ uptempo and high octane style of play. It almost seems as if it’s kind of position-less hockey out there sometimes based on how aggressive some of Vegas’ defensemen get when they have the puck, and at times it even looks like a four-man line rush out there as well. There’s certainly a confidence factor involved with this since DeBoer has so much trust in his defensemen to be aggressive with the puck, and that goes for someone like Theodore especially based on how offensive and aggressive he’s been when rushing the puck up the ice this season.
Theodore has quickly developed into a Norris Trophy contender on the back end and performed at that level throughout this season and even more so throughout the playoffs. Speaking of which, many of the NHL’s young stars on the back end have taken over the spotlight as players like Shea Theodore, Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Miro Heiskanen have all taken their games to another level throughout the playoffs as well.
The eye test and underlying numbers both proved to me just how good Theodore was this year, and some of the numbers he had were actually quite staggering, to be honest. Theodore typically has good luck on his side when it comes to analytics, but year-by-year he’s progressed into a top-end play-driver for his team. A majority of his numbers showed how much of an impact he had on his teammates offensively when he was on the ice, and nearly every time he provided a positive impact in the offensive zone with every defenseman he played with this year.
A Look at the Analytics
Here’s a look at Theodore’s player card from this season which shows how good he was. He was one of the top defensemen in the league this year when it comes to transitional play, offense, play-driving, and just his individual numbers in general. He was ridiculous at driving both shot quality and quantity when he was on the ice. Even though his Corsi/Fenwick numbers and his GF numbers have to be inflated at least a little bit because of the talent he had around him, he did also have a lower PDO this year which caused his GF numbers to be a bit lower than expected. That’s the main reason why his numbers in that category aren’t ridiculously high, but at the same time aren’t ridiculously low either.
It’s actually kind of interesting because while Theodore was so dynamic, versatile, and deceptive offensively, he ended up with pretty unlucky offensive numbers because of the fact that he had a lower PDO throughout the regular season. But, he was still pretty productive overall as he had a career year in goals, assists, and points. But, ever since Vegas acquired Robin Lehner from Chicago back in February, he’s provided that poise, confidence, and a stabilizing force in net to allow the Knights to play their own game in front of him. Because of the fact that Vegas sustained a high shooting and save percentage throughout the playoffs, that has certainly attributed to Theodore’s personal success and is a big reason why both his PDO and puck luck have improved.
Over the course of the last few years, Vegas has built a star-studded group of forwards up front with guys like Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, Reilly Smith, and Alex Tuch, but the amount of skilled depth forwards they have in their bottom-six has been so vital to their success as well. Even with all of the skill they have up and down their lineup, Theodore has his own god-gifted ability where he can create opportunities and rushes for himself with his deceptiveness, confidence, puck skills, and of course his hockey sense.
It’s not just something where he is creating those chances for himself offensively either, he is doing it in all three zones. Whether it’s on breakouts or through the neutral zone when he is efficiently maintaining possession of the puck on zone exits and entries, that’s one very effective way he is able to create offense for himself and for his teammates off the rush. But, a majority of his hockey sense factors into his play in the offensive zone, whether it’s getting shots through from the point, knowing what type of shot he needs to use, and where he needs to place the puck. But, it’s also his awareness of those shooting lanes since he understands how to open them up with his deceptiveness and his quick feet.
In general, he is just so talented and creative when he shoots the puck, and he’s even better than some forwards in this category since he owns a variety of different shots and can change up his velocity on them quite a bit. Based on his ability to beat goaltenders in a variety of ways, he can use every different shot type to his advantage whether it’s in tight, from the point, or even from awkward shooting angles from around the perimeter. Though this might seem really cliché, Theodore truly has the ability to score from anywhere offensively with his ability to create for himself and the offensive skill set he brings in general. It doesn’t matter where he is or how awkward the shooting angle is in the offensive zone, because he’s not afraid to shoot the puck whatsoever.
Theodore’s isolated impact chart is also extremely impressive, not just offensively either, but defensively he’s provided just as much of an impact as he’s taken strides in his own end when it comes to suppressing both shot quality and quantity. As you take a look at how Theodore’s ice time has progressed over the last few seasons in Vegas, he’s shown that he is willing to make strides on the defensive side of the puck which has allowed his ice time to increase. He’s also shown that he can play over 20+ minutes a game and will probably be able to average around 30 somewhere in the early stages of his prime.
Theodore still does not get any ice time on the penalty kill whatsoever, so that is probably holding him back from playing at least 25+ minutes every game. Once Theodore fully matures defensively, that should be when he becomes the minute-eating defenseman he was sought to be ever since joining the Knights. It’s not like he can’t play on the penalty kill either, but Vegas also has quite an abundance of defensemen on their back end who can kill penalties. That includes players like Brayden McNabb, Nate Schmidt, Nick Holden, and Zach Whitecloud (who formed a very stable 3rd pairing with Holden in this year’s playoffs). That’s not even including Alec Martinez who also has a specialty in killing penalties. That’s also over 80% of Vegas’ top-six that can all play on the penalty kill, a pretty good problem to have.
However, he has shown a lot of progress defensively inside the Edmonton bubble over the course of the last few months. Now he is using everything to his advantage defensively, whether that be using his feet to help him defend one-on-one or when he needs to recover, or his stick positioning to maintain a tight gap and keep players to the outside.
We’ve talked a lot about his offensive game already and what makes him such a special offensive defenseman, but he is obviously so good at creating chances offensively with his shot since he’s generating a lot of quality shots from high danger areas through his shot. Vegas actually has been quite terrible at finishing rebounds the last few years which has overrated his xG models a little bit, but Theodore is still a very talented shooter in his own right. He’s turned into a constant threat when it comes to getting shots through from the point, but a majority of the time you’ll see Theodore aim lower with his shots to create rebounds and chaos in front of the net.
But, another reason why his xG values are much lower on the power play compared to at even strength is because Vegas tends to overload players at the net front in even strength situations. You’ll often see that the bumper on both of their power play units is trying to deflect shots on net. Compared to when Vegas is in other even strength situations offensively, they really only have one guy at the net who is looking to clean up rebounds compared to the two or three players they usually do. It’s much different because of the fact that their wingers aren’t crashing the net as much as they usually do because they are set up on the faceoff circles. So, I’d certainly argue that their power play setup has to be a reason why they aren’t generating as many quality shots from the slot area as well.
With Theodore, the thing that stands out the most to me is how effectively he is able to stretch zones out. He is one of the most successful defensemen in the entire league when it comes to moving the puck up the ice and being able to stretch the zone effectively, and that allows his team to then transition the puck quickly with speed in order to gain the zone in an efficient manner.
Theodore leads all defensemen in the league this season in stretch pass completions/game as he averaged nearly 4 completed passes every game this year, and the interesting thing is that the runner up was actually John Carlson, another extremely good puck-mover who ended up having a career year offensively. He averaged just under Theodore’s 3.9 and finished with 3.7 completed stretch passes/game. It shows just how underrated Theodore is at moving the puck up the ice and out of the zone, and he is so good at being able to deliver these passes with precision and accuracy as well.
Here’s a few examples of Theodore’s best specialty:
Both of these examples show how effective Theodore is at moving the puck up the ice and out of the defensive zone. It’s arguably the best part of his game based on how dynamic he is when he moves the puck and how he is able to create offense for his team through his puck-moving abilities. It’s not just because of how many attributes he has and how dynamic he is as a puck-mover, but rather because of how efficiently he is able to create offense for his team using his puck-moving abilities and transitional play. That’s why I believe he is among the NHL’s best when it comes to moving the puck and his play in transition.
Some of Theodore’s defensive numbers also stood out on this chart as he averaged about 29 recovered loose pucks per game, which ranked third among defensemen in the NHL this season. That impacts the game for his team in all three zones, whether it’s in the defensive zone when he is retrieving a puck behind the net on a dump-in, in the neutral zone when a puck comes free along the boards and he uses his stick to break the play up, or even when there’s a missed pass offensively and he is able to maintain possession in the offensive zone for his team by recovering that puck. It’s a stat that determines which players are able to regain or maintain possession for their team the best, and it’s quietly a very important attribute into some of these possession-based stats that are out there. He also ranked second in denying defensive zone entries as he averaged 53.2% in this area per game.
Potential
There’s certainly still potential for Theodore to expand and grow his game all-around, but again, once he fully matures defensively, he could end up logging 30+ minutes a game and produce at least 60 — 70 points per year in his prime. The maturity he’s progressively shown in his game has allowed his ice time to rise, and he’s seen a pretty steady increase in ice time with Vegas over the last few years. His improved overall play and confidence with the puck might be two reasons why he might be in for another career year offensively next season, but his improved PDO throughout this year’s playoffs is also another attribute as to why he’s been playing the way he has in the bubble. There are certainly bigger expectations for him next season now, and we’ll see how his game expands as time elapses, but his game is certainly trending in the right direction obviously.
