Adam Fox is Elite
Adam Fox was drafted 66th overall by the Calgary Flames in the 2016 NHL Draft. Concerns around Fox’s size, offensive numbers being boosted by having good teammates with the USNTDP, and a “lack” of defensive play as an offensive-minded defenseman all were in question in regards to how he would translate to the next level. Instead, the adjustment to the collegiate level was quite smooth for Fox. He finished his freshman season at Harvard with 40 points (6G, 34A) in just 35 games, topping all defensemen on his team in scoring and ranking 4th in scoring on his team as well.
Rumors started to swirl around Fox potentially not signing with the Flames early on in his time with Harvard when he began to produce. Fox determined not to sign with the Flames and ended up being shipped to Carolina in the massive Dougie Hamilton trade that took place on the 2018 NHL Draft floor.
There was no risk involved for Carolina by acquiring Fox as he could sign and be a part of the stacked blueline that they had, or they could ship him away to another team and get some future assets in return. After his dominant junior season with Harvard in 2018–19 where he was in contention to win the Hobey Baker Award alongside Cale Makar (COL), the latter ended up happening.
On April 30th, 2019, the New York Rangers acquired Adam Fox from the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for two 2019 2nd-round picks (one of which was a conditional 3rd at the time). This gave Fox the opportunity to play for the team he grew up rooting for in his hometown back in Jericho, New York, and he has not disappointed ever since.
Fox finished his rookie season in the NHL with 42 points (8G, 34A) in 70 games and lived up to the hype surrounding him after he was traded to New York. There was a bit of an adjustment period for Fox as the pace of the NHL certainly caught up to him naturally, but it was his hockey sense and poised play with the puck that allowed him to adjust fairly quickly to the league.
Hockey IQ
Fox is unique in the sense that he doesn’t have the skating of defensemen like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, or even Miro Heiskanen, but instead he makes up for that with his elite brain. He also isn’t afraid to be hesitant with the puck either. Some players look to receive the puck and quickly make a play when an opportunity presents itself, but Fox prefers to hesitate in order for the RIGHT play to open up for his teammates.
It’s his ability to look through one of his last available options and still find a way to make a play happen. It allows his teammates to play with enough space with the puck rather than him looking to move the puck quickly and potentially make an errant play. That’s why I believe we rarely see Fox make a mistake with the puck and why he is so consistent. Every time I watch Fox under pressure, I’m confident enough thinking he’ll come away with the puck somehow, no matter how tight the circumstances. Because that is what he is able to do best. That’s not something that most defenders in the league have the ability to do and have the patience for.
Fox is almost always a step ahead of the play on the ice and knows what he wants to do with the puck before he has it. It’s funny, because it almost looks as if the game quite literally slows down in real time when Fox has the puck. Part of that has to do with his skating since he isn’t pushing the pace as much, but at the same time he leverages his poise to do that on a consistent basis.
Fox also does a superb job of utilizing deception and manipulation when he has the puck and confuses his opponents a lot of the time while doing so. All it really takes is for Fox to deliver a little head or shoulder fake, and even sometimes just holding onto the puck for extended time periods, and he can get opponents to scramble and move the opposite way. It’s something he does on a regular basis in pretty much every facet of the game, but something he does all the time walking the blue line in the offensive zone and on the power play. He does it extremely well to allow for shooting lanes to be opened up and for plays to be made as well.
Let’s take a look at some video examples of what Fox is capable of doing while he is on the ice.
The Film
This is Adam Fox at his best in terms of smarts right here. With the NYR’s two-man drop system on the power play, he can feed the puck either through the diagonal seam on the weak side or just pass the puck straight back on the strong side. Fox looks for Zibanejad for a diagonal pass, realizes it isn’t there, then holds onto the puck and waits for Zibanejad to be an option. The elite awareness of Fox to recognize that a turnover was basically bound to happen if he initially made that pass and having the poise to wait and find a better option is remarkable.
Fox lures the forechecker closer to him, maintains possession with his head up while moving backwards, and then feeds Zibanejad for a controlled zone entry. Amazing work from Fox here.
Here’s another very subtle play from Fox here. This isn’t necessarily something he’ll do regularly, but I saw it and had to clip it. He recognizes that Ristolainen is trying to close in on NYR’s strong side forward, intentionally tangles him & his stick up, and forces Ristolainen off balance to create separation. Fox sneakily activates as a 4th forward and somehow got behind everyone here, but continued his route to the net, picks up a rebound, and puts the puck in the net. That all started with his play to intentionally throw off Ristolainen and get him out of position to allow for space to open up for him and his teammates.
Also, it’s amazing how Fox can just activate from the point and can basically go unnoticeable and blend in with the rest of the play, sometimes I don’t even see him doing it either. He’s so sneaky with how he activates from the point and isn’t afraid at all to take risks offensively without the puck as well.
Fox is a master of manipulation and deception. Andreas Johnsson realizes there’s an opportunity to disrupt the play here with Fox in the high corner of the offensive zone. Fox sees him coming, but once again takes advantage of the space and waits to make a play. Johnsson comes in, but Fox outmaneuvers him and hooks a pass over to Zibanejad, with Johnsson way out of position now.
About 15 seconds or so into the clip now, Fox utilizes his poise once again. He draws Johnsson in again while circling back to the point, pivots, handles the puck to his side to create space, and makes a short-area pass over to Zibanejad.
Here again, Fox shows off his mastery of deception and manipulation once again. He does an excellent job of angling his stick and head in a way that fools the opposition and goaltender into thinking he is going to shoot. Instead, Fox already knows he has Panarin on the weak side when he has the puck.
Fox gets the puck, waits for the passing lane to clearly open up by manipulating the opposition, and then feeds Panarin cross-seam who wires home a one-timer. That’s a tough read for the goaltender to make since Fox forced him to move all the way to his left by getting him to think he would shoot, and he wasn’t able to get over in time to make a save obviously.
Here’s some great examples of Fox’s breakouts and his ability to outmaneuver forecheckers with ease. His deception, confidence, ability to control the puck with his head up, and his mobility are all a treat to watch when he’s under pressure in these circumstances. These clips all show that, and they also show how much he wants to make the right play consistently. If he doesn’t see a play he likes, he’ll sometimes circle back or wait to make sure the right option opens up. He can bait you and get you moving one way, but instead moves the puck or finds space in the opposite way.
Fox also brings good habits and makes sure to check his shoulders so he knows how much time and space he has on a retrieval. It’s one of his best habits before retrieving a puck and making a play so that he can identify where pressure is coming from. He’ll do the same when he has the puck as well, but it’s vital for him to be able to know what he needs to do with the puck first when retrieving by checking both of his shoulders.
Here’s another excellent example of Adam Fox’s poise with the puck on his stick. Adam also makes an excellent point in this tweet. For the star players in today’s game, the game moves extremely slow for them since they’re able to process the play so quickly and slow the game down through leverage. They’re the ones dictating the play. Players who have less hockey sense on the other hand, the game is moving at a rapid pace for them since they don’t have the cognitive ability to process the play quickly like the stars do.
So for Fox here, for what may seem like a quickly moving play to us, things on the ice are actually moving slowly for him. It’s also another example of Fox’s ability to maintain composure with the puck and finding a way to make the right play. He draws in that Edmonton forward to him, knows he doesn’t have a direct option, waits, and finally makes a pass along the strong side wall with the Edmonton defender moving back into the box formation.
There’s a quiet, subtle confidence about Fox that just makes him so much fun to watch offensively. Whether it’s his poise, his consistency, elite level playmaking, or his ability to activate within the offensive zone, Fox knows what his capabilities are and shows them every time he is on the ice. He isn’t afraid to make things happen offensively by himself. He loves to involve himself in the play and as these highlights show, and he’s confident enough in himself to make a difference for his team.
The skillset that Fox has is something that is extremely unique, as it bonds an old-school rover with a modern-day offensive defenseman who is elite in every facet and brings exceptional patience with the puck to go along with that. It makes for a player who isn’t your traditional offensive defenseman nowadays which is unique to watch.
The Data
Fox had the most underrated rookie season of any player last year as he finished FOURTH in Calder Trophy voting. Instead, he turned heads this season as he finished with a remarkable 47 points (5G, 42A) in 55 games, finishing both 2nd in scoring and 1st in assists among defensemen this season. And to top it off, a Norris Trophy in just his 2nd season as well. Not bad.
Besides the raw point totals, there’s way more layers to what Fox actually provided to the Rangers in every zone, and the data helped support that.
Fox dominated with his on-ice numbers for the Rangers at 5v5 play this season. The Rangers were better in every single category with him on the ice. According to Natural Stat Trick as the bar graph shows here, Fox rounded out his sophomore year with a 49.85 CF%, 50.90 SCF%, 58.11 GF%, and a 54.22 xG%. Other than his CF% which was slightly below 50%, every time Fox was on the ice at 5v5 the Rangers were better offensively. Fox’s on-ice high danger numbers were also excellent as he rocked a 52.58 HDCF% as well as a 57.89 HDGF% at 5v5 play as well.
When Fox was not on the ice for the Rangers, opponents would be generating more scoring chances and the Rangers were also being outscored without him as well. It’s also tough since the Rangers really don’t have another defensemen who has the ability to drive play so well from the backend like Fox does. Most of the heavy lifting on defense is driven through Fox’s elite abilities in all 3 zones when he is on the ice.
I would even argue that Fox is at least a top-5 defenseman in the entire league right now.
He was superb at driving possession for the Rangers and was most consistent at being able to drive possession when he was on the ice. As shown above, Fox was the best defenseman in the league in the offensive zone with a whopping 77% possession success rate. This factors things like completed passes, beating players 1v1, getting the puck out of their own end/into offensive zone with possession, shots on goal, and more according to Mike Kelly of SportLogiq (via NHL Network interview).
This is something that is very evident with the eye test as well. Fox is elite at advancing the play under pressure and dodging his checks to be able to maintain possession of the puck, and it happens in every zone. He can be a one-man breakout, can jumpstart the play in transition by himself or by utilizing a teammate, is the perfect power play quarterback, and can shut everyone down defensively as well. He also does an excellent job of being able to lure forecheckers near him and problem-solving to create quick transitional situations going up ice as well.
He’s blossomed quite quickly as someone who can handle top matchups and many different situations with increased ice time, and this was just his second season in the league.
Norris Trophy Finalists 5v5 Relative xG (On-Ice xG% minus Off-Ice xG%)
Among the Norris Trophy finalists listed above, the Rangers were expected to outscore opponents by 10% with Fox on the ice, the widest margin of all the Norris Trophy finalists at 5-on-5 play. Makar was close to a 50–50 split as the Avalanche were expected to outscore opponents with him on the ice by 1.3%. The odd one here is…Victor Hedman. The Lightning were expected to be outscored by 3.4% with Hedman on the ice and were better off with him not on the ice at 5v5 play.
Compared to the other two Norris finalists in Cale Makar and Victor Hedman, Fox faced more quality competition and played with less quality teammates compared to the other two, on a top-20 team in the league! Tampa Bay and Colorado were both top-10 teams in the league in the regular season, yet Fox managed to outproduce both. Had Makar not dealt with injury issues this season I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him put up slightly higher point totals, Hedman would’ve been better if he was fully healthy as well, but this is remarkable considering the situation Fox was in.
Also of note, this article was written during the regular season and Fox’s stats look a little bit different now, but this is still very impressive nonetheless. The funny thing is, Fox actually started a higher rate of offensive zone shifts at 5v5 in his rookie season compared to this year, and he STILL managed to produce at nearly a point-per-game rate. 48.7% of Fox’s shifts started in the offensive zone, while 51.3% of his starts originated in the defensive zone this season.
Fox started 54.3% of his shifts in the offensive zone in his rookie year…
The best Rangers defenseman since Brian Leetch?
While it may seem lofty to compare Fox to one of the best offensive defenseman of all time, there’s certainly a point to be made here. Fox became the first Rangers defenseman since Leetch back in 1996–97 to win the Norris Trophy. Given the circumstances of the 2021 season, being able to win the Norris Trophy in an unorthodox regular season is an even more amazing feat for Fox. Nobody had a clue when the season would begin to start with, and of course there was a grueling shortened schedule that was played in very little time.
Fox also became just the second defenseman to win the Norris Trophy in his second season in the NHL. The other? Bobby Orr. Pretty good company.
Anyways, when you look at the craftiness, gifted offensive skillset, playmaking, and the ability to drive play on the ice in every zone, there are some similarities between the two for sure. Fox may not be as gifted of a skater like Leetch was, but instead makes up for that with his elite reads all over the ice and his lateral mobility.
Leetch was also in the same realm as Fox as he’d be the go-to guy to rely upon in pretty much every situation. Leetch became an anchor down the stretch for the Rangers and continued to blossom as a two-way defenseman with his play not only in the regular season, but in the playoffs as well. While we haven’t gotten a taste of Fox in the playoffs yet, the Rangers aren’t far away from contending again with Gerard Gallant as their new head coach, so we’ll see what Fox can provide for them when that happens.
Yes, Fox is certainly the best Rangers defenseman since Leetch with his stylistic abilities on the ice, but there’s still a long way for Fox to go if we actually want to compare the two since Fox is still just 23 years old. If we continue to see the progression from Fox over time, then it’s something we could definitely circle back to in the future.
